Playing lottery, the chance to operate By Ivan A. Rosales Garcia. R & R Investments Forex This is the fifth installment of a server written about philosophical ideas in the foreign exchange market. I would like to make a stop on the way to discuss various aspects of operating in the foreign exchange market and the impact they have on our relationship with the market. In our first article we talked about the unique moments in the market, think this way we can "protect" to fall in projections or wait for something that the market does not offer, we have also commented about the objectivity that we should have to operate and often lose, we have seen how to act in this market is really a game that is played solo, and finally the issue of Profits and its impact on our performance. want to tell the reader that I have no predefined topics to write these articles, each of them comes to my al momento de operar y al momento de darme cuenta que dicho aspecto tiene una influencia en mi estrategia, en mi emotividad o en mi pensar como trader. El tema del presente artículo surgió de un modo independiente al mercado, pero no por eso no es un buen ejemplo que pueda ser aplicado dentro del mismo. Me encontraba hace algún tiempo platicando con un familiar respecto de un juego de lotería de México que en ese entonces tenia una bolsa acumulada de mas de 500 millones de pesos, el juego es simple y sencillo, cualquier persona con 15 pesos en el bolsillo elige 6 números de entre 50 posibles, la idea es tener los mismos 6 números que se sortean para obtener el total del premio, si una persona logra acertar a 3 or more numbers drawn then becomes entitled to part of the prize. Why would anyone spend 15 dollars or much larger amounts of money to buy lottery tickets, knowing that you may not get any prize? When I get that question, one word comes to my answer and that is: CHANCE. The probability that the numbers we have elected our ticket is the one with the numbers drawn. And another aspect of our society represents a clear and perhaps at its best odds? I believe that no one else like financial markets. But before we get into the aspect of the market, back to my initial comment on the talk held with my family. We talked first about the grand sum of 500 million pesos that the lottery had gathered, a negligible figure, if someone won that amount will solve many problems, in fact only economic problems but most likely would create more problems in other aspects of his life, I must say at this point I'm not a person who usually play games of chance or lottery, I'm not really prone to them but at the same time I have no arguments against it, I prefer to choose games where you have "certain degree of control "and where you can manage benefits on my behalf to provide the same game. (would be good to discuss what type of game gives you that.) Following my talk with my family, he told me that he is a regular player of this type of lottery and participate in each drawing almost religious way you could say. Then I asked him what were the numbers that usually play, if you have fixed numbers or choose them at random, told me that usually plays with fixed numbers that represent something important to him, like family birthday numbers and sometimes they does so completely random, in fact, for some time the method was to choose the numbers you play for the draw was fixed at the previous draw results and select those numbers that are repeated in most cases, thereafter the following exchange occurred: "And because you do that? ask "Well, if I choose those numbers are likely to come out again in the next drawing given the chance, was his reply. "But as the past performance affect the new lot? "Do not affect in any way but the odds show that these numbers are more likely to exit. "I think that all they do is show the numbers likely to have left but those odds have no effect on the next draw. "No no influence or effect in the new draw, but the odds make a number in particular, has come more often and therefore come out again. This small excerpt of the conversation left me very pensive, the truth is that thinking of my family and myself is very different and ultimately we do not reach an agreement. The image formed in my mind when I heard my family was that of a ghost called probability choosing their free will (a very biting) recurring numbers in each draw and not only that, but once past 10, 50 or 100 drawings, change his act at random and capricious, then the ghost flirting and closing the eye on my family smiling maliciously to choose the number 40 (say one) for next draw. Thinking each drawing, I imagine a raffle filled with 50 balls and a number written on each of them, picture them turning into the raffle jumping and crashing into each and every one of them having the same probability of out sorted into each new draw. Even when the number 40 has been drawn out in the last 10, 100 or 1.000 consistently draws has no advantage in my mind about the rest of the numbers, we're not talking about a race where you can take advantage of a particular number We are talking about in each of the drawings, each number has an equal chance of being elected than the rest, has undergone what has happened in sweepstakes recently, these results have no influence on any subsequent draw, NIN-GU-NA! Now I would like the reader to think of what until now has read and reason a bit using the same thinking, but now instead of talking about lottery and sweepstakes numbers speak of entrances to the market and gains or losses obtained, in fact the reader can reread this letter in mind market operations for greater understanding. BELIEVE THAT THE OPERATION OF THE CHANCES TO BE IN A SENSE OF UNDERSTANDING rather than predictive. The core of this paper is aimed in two directions: independence between each of operations conducted within the market, and management of the odds of them. Currently we can start thinking about the odds on the limits of the market, where each operation is unique and independent of all others, so we came to the idea that there is no "winning" in the market, at least not out of mind, work well for a couple of months or a couple of years I did not in any way guarantee similar results in the future, astronomers did not make a profit in any way affect the outcome of the next operation Each of the operations we have done and will in future be completely independent entre ellas. Aun y cuando utilicemos la misma estrategia que nos dio grandes resultados durante un tiempo eso no nos asegura que la misma vaya a funcionar en el futuro. Y aquí quiero hacer un énfasis especial, si como resultado de operaciones con ganancias continuas nos sentimos a gusto y confiados con el mercado y como consecuencia actuamos mas libremente para abrir posiciones y así mismo hacernos de mas ganancias, todo es resultado de lo que nuestra mente nos explica o quiere hacernos creer, pensamos que estamos en una buena racha y que haber hecho algunas operaciones ganadoras nos pone en sintonía para continuar con las ganancias, cuando realmente las operaciones no tienen nada que ver sino mas bien es nuestra mente que nos dice que tuvieron relationship between them. Unfortunately our mind can play against us is that by continually losing positions feelings of frustration take over our mind and is then displayed one after another loss, when in fact they themselves are the result of loss of concentration on our part and not because the first loss has any influence on the next operation, again, There is no influence, no such influence rather than within the confines of our mind. On the other hand, how we use the odds to try to understand the market and at this point is fine, I do not consider good use is the fact that tool for projecting the future or think they are rigid rules that limit our performance. As human beings we are not biologically adapted to deal with probabilities and the problem is that we use this tool to address some of our problems not only in the market but in our daily lives. As we understand the following example: imagine that my family continues the search of the prize millionaire buying lottery tickets, and faithfully continued by a couple of years getting a ticket every week without receiving any prize, now think that one day I with my family to buy a ticket for that week, and that when in the store I have the urge to buy a lottery ticket. The draw date arrives and the search results together my family and I realize that I have the winning ticket and the ticket of my family does not have any prize, your ticket in a few words is not worth even the paper that is printed. I would thus creditor to lottery prize of several million pesos. As the reader would feel if instead of my family? At least I can say I instead of my family could feel the victim of some form of injustice and I doubt not that the reader will agree with me. Would be more logical to think that my family could feel that way, however, the whole problem would only be in your mind, no matter if you have purchased lottery tickets for years with our tickets my family and I had the same chance of winning. Feeling bad about a situation like I described does nothing but show faithfully as we are not prepared to think or deal with probabilities. I believe that we are often victims of the odds or better, are victims of our own understanding of probabilities, and to illustrate that I share with the reader a particular situation that I lived a couple of years: For some time I felt so I went wrong a visitar al doctor, este después de la revisión de rutina y de evaluar los síntomas que tenía me diagnosticó con una enfermedad muy seria, a su parecer no cabía duda alguna de que los síntomas que tenía eran reflejo de la enfermedad que me diagnosticó, que en su experiencia al haber revisado casos similares como el mío en sus palabras había una alta probabilidad de que yo padeciera la misma enfermedad, una probabilidad del 80% para ser exactos. Un diagnostico por el estilo puede derrumbar a cualquier persona y no fui la excepción, no tengo que explicar mucho al lector los sentimientos y preocupaciones que se revuelven en la mente cuando uno es diagnosticado con algo que le parece ajeno. Un diagnostico del 80% de probabilidad of getting a disease care can be almost taken for granted, however, at that time while I began to consider the remaining 20% \u200b\u200bchance, it is true that my symptoms pointed to a victim of the disease no doubt, but the percentage of 80% represented only a historical record of the sum of the previous cases, so it did not determine my fate in particular. at the time I decided to go to a specialist (the first doctor was a general practitioner) for a more specialized opinion of my case and start the treatment required for cure, once a specialist and after my symptoms and tell The first diagnosis was revised from and more thorough examinations, resulting in a completely different diagnosis, namely that my case did not point to a highly dangerous disease but rather to other types which could be healed in a couple of weeks. general management of the probabilities of the first doctor that I check, was what made me almost certain that his words were very successful. EQUAL AND MORE HERE MUEVELO, WHICH IS ATTEMPT TO REMOVE YOUR "FEEL" THE EDITOR AS as we discussed above is not the end of this article, and what it does is deviate from the main theme. was true that most people that the first doctor had reviewed had similar symptoms found to be suffering from serious and each of their cases brought their numbers to the sum of all of which obtained a 80% probability for similar cases, just as the remaining 20% \u200b\u200bis the cumulative cases which were not subject to disease, however, none of them had any influence on the outcome of my assessment with a specialist, which is why I insist that, from my point of view, the odds are merely a way of understanding more than the projection, we may serve to give us an idea of \u200b\u200bthe behavior of figures or situations, but extend the results likely provide in the future we will simply distort our performance rather than waiting or to avoid past situations which have no influence on the next case in particular, in a manner contrary to the overwhelming 80% chance of having a serious illness would have been enough for me for sick and lose all hope. In the above example we can consider that as humans we are not prepared to deal with the odds in our world in general and even less within the boundaries of a financial market. Thus we lose stability when the odds in the lottery case, seem so incomprehensible or wrong, or as in the case of diagnosis of disease, seem to determine our destiny almost an absolute and irremediable. So what to do or to think about it? You can ask the reader. As traders it is important and transcendental thinking in probabilities, a result of such thinking is the fact that as a trader is not concerned with what the market does or does not do, and more importantly, as the total operator According to the results you get inside it without any excitement or frustration, this does not mean we have no feelings at the time of operation and therefore we should repress each working day in the market, but rather means that a trader Thinking of probabilities is removed within their own system is the fact of being manipulated by their feelings and can feel even the latter not alter in any way or concentration charts and news analysis, this because in your system, in its being as a trader is installed (so to speak) the odds and think it is so natural and commonplace as walking or breathing. is not easy to get to that level of consciousness as an operator, so the market failed and only a few thousand remain, requires an inside job as a trader and as a person, effort, dedication and discipline as any other job. Therefore, this article aims to reach the reader's mind and sow this view, depend on each one of you reading this work on the seed of this idea to reap its rewards. The road as an operator is long and no default target when you start, anyone can start to explore it, much give up on after a few steps, some more wandering not knowing where to go, and a few others manage to find their own path and cross it safely and satisfaction without worrying about rushing to get faster at the end or prefer to enjoy the day and time of Profits to be in their path. My advice for those operators is that more important than finding the "holy grail" in the market that will give money on a silver platter is looking to install in his system thought of probabilities, not only improve their life as a trader but life in general. Like an old tale they say: Come to the cliff, they said. We do not want, we are afraid, they replied. Come to the cliff, they said. We do not want, we are afraid, they replied. Come to the cliff, they said. Then was then pushed. And that was when they flew and were free.
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