By forista Frankcis in: http://z3.invisionfree.com/Artebursatil
History is to repeat, with different names at different times, but the human being remains the same, demonstrating the existence of stock market cycles and I will describe by André Kostolany in his book of "lessons." This cycle stock speculator classified into three upswings, A.1, A.2 and A.3 plus three downturns B.1, B.2, and B.3, possibly the current scenario in which we are phase identified as B.1 and B.2 reaching phase., as I will explain later. There are three key factors in the development of market movements, are the lifeblood of their operation: liquidity (cash price), psychology and business benefits. B 3. The stock market is low, the prices have dropped from a previous upward movement, the interest has risen, it has exhausted the liquidity and Queen pessimism in regard to economic development and potential benefits of the business. The shares have been transferred from weak hands to strong hands, if prices do not continue to decline despite the bad news already discounted, is the best buy signal. Is the phase of the negative hype, despair, a lot of pain, depression, the number of operators is very low, low speculators to become too optimistic. PURCHASE AND CLOSING PHASE credit sales. A 1. The central banks start to lower the price of money to stimulate the economy, you start to have more liquidity, the relationship between dividends and price Money is favorable for stocks, get the first speculators bought low and slow, the atmosphere becomes smooth pessimistic coming new actors, will produce a chain reaction, less pessimistic, more liquidity, more shopping, is the first upward movement phase, the correction phase of the pessimistic situation, economic situation is mejorando.FASE OF PURCHASE. A 2. The money is getting cheaper, the economy is revived, there is news about corporate profits increase, the phase of accompanying quotes and optimism is installed, little by little, in the park, is the increased development phase economic come increasingly more speculators. Quotes with more volume up and down with little. Maintenance Phase A 3. Optimism grows into euphoria, no longer interests continue to decline, corporate profits are much higher, volatility decreases and with it the feeling of risk, buyers are increasingly turning the media and encourage individuals, hands strong role to go beyond the weak hands, the liquidity of banks is very large, are granted on highly concessional loans, there is a clear split with banks who dispose of large quantities of shares, there are many outlets of new actors to markets, inflation fires and central banks begin to raise the price of money and restrict liquidity. Exaggeration phase (high benefits, euphoria, number of investors very high) phase distribution. PHASE OF SALE. B 1. It is expected that a new wave of investors comes at higher prices but because of the monetary policy the new money has ceased and the prices are not rising (the dividends are high and corporate profits begin to slow down). This is the first phase of the falling motion, phase correction, start coming bad news for the economy, pessimism is gaining adherents, the first timid start dating and reactions occur chain, the prices start to fall, settle credit sellers increasingly gaining ground. PHASE OF SALES (Current Phase) B 2. Contributions continue to fall, the bad news is happening, the timid start accelerating exits, the optimism has turned into pessimism, fear is installed, the merchants on credit are the masters of the park and finally comes the panic selling. Falls are high volume and bounce with very little, is the monitoring phase and gradually bearish investors are falling, you'll enter a phase of exaggeration of the falls. (FASE SALES CREDIT ACCUMULATION AND CASH). Duration cycles can not fix because it depends on what that was oversold or overbought the market, the psychology of the masses and the factors impoderables (catastrophes, terrorism) that can run in parallel to economic cycles and this is not possible to foresee the long term, it is so difficult to know which situation we find ourselves in the future.
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