Ceci Thanks to our colleague, Professor of English at 
http://z3.invisionfree.com/Artebursatil
is that we have translated a beautiful jewel that will help us further understanding through which this juego.GRACIAS CECI !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2 ° Delivery.
the most fundamental characteristic of the market: it can express itself in a matching of almost infinite ways.
The market can do virtually anything at any time. This may seem obvious but the problem is that we all tend to take for granted this feature, so that causes us to commit the most fundamental mistakes over and over trading. The fact that if traders really think anything could happen at any time would have considerably less loss and more consistent profits.
most fundamental components of the market are the traders. The individual traders act as a force on prices, making the move to pay a higher price or offer lower. Why
traders pay a higher price or offer it lower?
To answer this question we must ask ourselves why people operate in the market. The obvious purpose is that they do to earn money. We know this because there are two things a trader can do (buy and sell) and there are two possible outcomes of each trade (profit or loss).
In summary, we can say that the movement of prices (market performance) is a function of what traders think about the future. To be more specific, all price movement is a function of what individual traders think that is cheap or expensive.
dynamics of market behavior is simple. There are only three primary forces: traders who believe that the price is low, traders believe that the price is high and traders are watching and trying to decide if the price is high or low. Technically this third group is a potential strength. The reasons why any group of traders believe that a price is high or under are usually irrelevant, because the vast majority of them act in a manner not disciplined, disorganized, dangerous and uncertain.
is not difficult to understand what happens in the market if we remember that any movement of money or lack of movement is a function of the relative balance or imbalance between two primal forces (traders who believe that prices will rise and traders who think that the price lower). If there is balance between the two groups, the price will stagnate, because both sides absorb the force of the other side. If there is an imbalance, prices will move in the direction of the force majeure.,
that can prevent virtually anything can happen at any time? Nothing.
not predefine your risk, not to cut your losses, do not take profits sistemàsticamente are three of the most common and costly errror of trading. only the best traders have eliminated these errors. At some point they have learned to believe without a doubt that anything can happen and answer for what they do not know, so unexpected .. Beyond
we know that there are two forces pushing market prices (those who believe that the price will drop and those who believe the price will go up), there is something we do not know and we'll never know for Unless we can read minds. For example, how many traders are watching swords or are about to enter the market? We know many of them want to sell and how much to buy and how much? How many are about to change his mind about the position? If they do, for how long remain outside the market? And if they return, which way will they?
These are variables constant, never ending, always operate in unknown cualuqier market. The best traders do not try to hide these unknown variables pretending they do not exist, or try to intellectualize or rationalize through the analysis of the market. By contrast, the best traders take these variables into account and make them part of their plans compontente trading. For the trader
typical, the opposite is true. Opera from the perspective of what you do not see, hear or sense should not exist. If you really believe in the existence of these hidden variables potentially POSE poker action in the prices at any time, He should also believe that every trade has an uncertain outcome. And if every trade has an uncertain outcome, how can they justify or convince himself not to predefine your risk, cut your losses or take profits in some systematic way? Given the circumstances, not adhering to these three fundamental aspects is the equivalent of emotional and financial suicide.
why someone would not do this?
The answer is simple. The typical trader believes that it is not necessary because he thinks he already knows what will happen in the future based on what they perceive is happening. If you already know what will happen, no reason to adhere to principles of pre-define risk, cut losses and take profits. Believe, assume, believe that one "knows" will be the cause of each error virtual trading can potentially make.
The belief in the most effective and functional trading that anyone can acquire is "anything can happen." This, besides being true, function as a solid foundation for the construction of any other belief or attitude that needs to be a successful trader.
Without that belief, your mind will automatically cause the crash, avoid or rationalize any information that may indicate that the market could do something he did not accept as possible. If you believe that anything is possible, then there is nothing to prevent his mind. For whatever includes all things, this belief act as an expansive force on the market perepciòn that will enable you to receive information that otherwise would have been invisible to him. In essence, be asking yourself available (open your mind) to perceive more of the possibilities that exist from the perspective of mercado.Aùn more importantly, sets the belief that anything can happen, will be training your mind to think in probabilities.
trader's edge
think in terms of probabilities
exactly what it means to think in probabilities and that is essential for consistent success as a trader? If one takes a moment to the last sentence, one will notice that I made consistency a probability function. Sounds like a contradiction: How can someone produce consistent results from an event that has a probabilistic outcome uncertain? To answer this question, all we have to do is look at the gaming industry.
corporations spend vast sums of money in the hundreds of millions if not billions, of dollars in hotels made to attract people to their casinos. As justify spending vast sums of money in hotels and casinos, whose primary function is to generate profits from an event that has a purely random result?
The paradox: random outcomes, consistent results
Here's an interesting paradox. Casinos achieve consistent profits day after day and year after year, providing an event that has a completely random outcome. Should not an outcome consistent nonrandom produce random results and inconsistent?
What casino owners, players with experience and the best traders understand that the typical trader can not understand is: The events that are probable outcomes can produce consistent results, if one can put the odds in their favor and if sample is large enough. The best traders try to trading like a numbers game, similar to the casinos and professional gamblers approach to gambling.
For example in blackjack casino edge is about 4.5 on the edge of the players. This means that on a large enough sample (the number of hands played), the net profit casino of 4.5 cents on the dollar bet. This average takes into account all the players who withdrew gnana much, everyone lost a lot and all who were in the middle of both groups.
What the owners of casinos and professional gamblers understand the nature of probability is that every hand played is statistically independent of each other hands. Each individual hand is a unique event where the outcome is random in relation to the last hand played or sigueintes. If we focus on each hand individually, there will be random and unpredictable distribution between winning and losing hands. But on a collective basis, the opposite is true. If plays a large enough number of hands, patterns emerge that will produce a result consistent, predictable and statistically reliable.
This is what makes it so difficult to think in terms of probabilities, as it requires two layers of thought that on the surface contradict each other. The outcome of each hand is unpredictable as the outcome of a number of hands played makes the outcome is relatively certain and predictable.
is the ability to believe in the unpredictability of the game at the micro level and simultaneously believe in the predictability of the macro-level game that makes the casinos and players are predictable and successful professionals at what they do. That belief in the unique each hand prevents the emergence of the futile aim of trying to predict the outcome of each individual hand. Have learned and fully accepted that you can not predict what will happen in the next hand and their egos are not involved in the outcome of each hand. And what's more important is that they need to know to make money consistently.
As a result, have learned to keep the odds in your favor and run through without errors, making them less susceptible to error. Remain relaxed because they are committed and willing to let the odds (the border) is put into play, while they know that if the edges are good enough and large enough sample, shall be net gainers.
Traders who have learned to think in probabilities approach the market from the same perspective. At the micro level, they believe that every trade is unique. And they understand that at any given time, the market might be exactly the same in a chart as seen in an earlier stage, but the current market consistency from one moment to another is never the same.
is extremely important to understand this phenomenon and its psychological implications.
Traders typically go through the exercise to convince themselves they are right before entering a trade, because the alternative (may be wrong) is simply unacceptable. Remember that our mind is programmed to associate. As result, be wrong in a trade anyone has the potential to be associated with any (or all) other event in the life of the trader who has been wrong. The implication is that any trade can easily be associated with the accumulated pain of every time you made a mistake in his life. Given the enormous burden of unresolved negative energy surrounding what it means to be wrong that exists in most people, it is easy to see why each trade can literally make the meaning of a life or death situation. So, for the typical trader, to determine how the market would have to look, sound or feel to know that your trade is not working would create an irreconcilable dilemma. On the one hand, desperately needed the win and the only way is participanado, but the only way to participate is if you are sure that your trade will earn.
On the other hand, if he defines his risk, being by his will accept information that would deny something that has already been convinced if cord.The be contradicting his process of making a decision that if you went through to convince trade like his work. If he exposes himself to conflicting information, probably would create some level of doubt about the viability of this trade. If allowed to experience that certainly difficult to participate. If you eventually do not make their trade and this ends up being the winner, feel extreme agony. For some people, nothing hurts more than recognizing an opportunity but lose because of doubts about himself. For the typical trader, the only way out of this dilemma is to ignore the psychological risk and convince yourself that the trade is correct.
For traders who have learned to think in terms of probabilities there is no dilemma. They have learned that trading has nothing to do with being right or wrong on any individual trade. As a result, they have to perceive the risks of trading in the same manner as a typical bring. Any
best traders (those who think in probabilities) can have as much negative energy surrounding what it means to be wrong as the typical trader. But while they legintimamente define the trading as a game of chance, their emotional responses to the outcome of any particular trade are equivalent to how the typical trader would feel about a coin toss, face and seeing predicting currency and dry out. An incorrect prediction, but for most people be wrong in predicting the outcome of a coin toss will not connect to the accumulated pain of every time they have been wrong in their lives.
Why?
Most people know that the outcome of tossing a coin is random. If you believe this, then naturally expect a random deselance. When we accept in advance a envento that we do not know how to prove, that acceptance has the effect of keeping our expectation neutral and open.
Now we're getting to the core of what hurts the typical trader. Any expectation of market behavior that is specific, well defined or rigid - instead of being neutral and open-is unrealistic and potentially harmful. If every time the market is unique, and anything is possible, then any expectation that these features do not reflect lack of limits is not realistic.
How to eliminate the riskemotional
emocinal To eliminate the risk of trading, we must neutralize the expectations of what the market will do. Recall that the market always reported in terms of probabilities.
likely to think, we create the mental structure qu is consistent with the basic principles of a probabilistic environment.
FIVE KEY FACTS
1) Anything can happen. 2) It is necessary to know what will happen to make make money. 3) There is a random distribution between winning and losing trades for any set of variables that define an edge (edge). 4) An edge (edge) no is nothing more than an indication of greater probabilidade that something happens at some point. 5) Every time the market is unique.
When we take these five truths, our expectations will always be online with the psychological realities of the market environment. With appropriate expectations, we will remove our potential to define and interpret market information as painful or threatening, and therefore effectively neutralize the risk of trading emocinal.
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